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House Selections

Ron Uchman’s Hawthorne analysis for Saturday, June 25th

Closing day (sigh)

Race 1

3-WATERMARK drops. Connection won’t quite make their money back after claiming her for $20k two races back but, is she can win and get claimed, they won’t be out too much. Don’t ignore 8-VICTORIA’S DOLL. She ran well in her debut but was a bit of a head case in last and didn’t run much. Her barn sports a high win percentage at the meet. Would be a mistake to discount this filly’s chances. 1-KISS N’ BIZ, the other Rivelli-trained runner, makes her debut. Her drills aren’t bad and her barn does win with a high percentage of first-time starters.

Race 2

Seemingly weak field than anybody can win but someone has to. Might as well take a chance. 5-SPECIAL CONQUEST would be a big surprise but he’s had only two turf races and finished third in one of them. Switches to a hot-riding apprentice jockey and her weight break. That just might be a big help in this wide-open race. 1-READY AT MIDNIGHT has plenty of turf experience, so good, some not so much. But she did just finish third in similar. 4-UNION PARK GAL would prefer five furlongs but she does race evenly and a probable contested pace ahead of her could allow her to close some ground late.

Race 3

3-MUD HUT finished second when dropped to this level in last. That race was a sixteenth shorter and she seemed to be running out of gas late in that spot but she will race with first Lasix today. That could make the difference. 3-JOY ENAMORADO didn’t handle the turf, the company, or the distance in her first race against winners but she’s dropping in class, moving back to dirt and turning back in distance. Wakes up. 6-TAP N TWINE finished third in last couple. She doesn’t possess a big closing move but the probable heated pace ahead of her could set up for what she does have.

Race 4

2-KANITHAPPEN seems like he should be far better than the rest. He appeared to improve dramatically after getting claimed by this barn, including breaking his maiden by 10. He tired in last when taking on better on the lawn but he’s back on the main track and dropping to the right level for this. 8-MADELYN’S HEAT finished on equal terms with top pick on the weeds in last but she is another that obviously prefers the main track. Drops to a better level. He finished second versus better the last time Baird rode. Might be able to do at least as well in this race. Don’t think 3-LEE LA DEW can win this race but he does have a knack for finishing in the money. Won only once in 32 starts but finished in the money another 16 times, 10 times in second.

Race 5

4-JACK’S ADVANTAGE might have found his spot. He faced much better in all three local starts. With the drop to this level he should be tough, on or off the lead. 2-NYOMAN is overdue. He’ll be tracking the pace once again. A late surge can get him past them all. 1-OUR THOMAS just missed in last after third-place finishes in his previous two starts. Wouldn’t take much improvement to get him over the top.

Race 6

Saving the best for last? Great stakes race for closing day. Multiple-stakes winner 1-TWO EMMYS tired in the Grade 2 Elkhorn at Keeneland in last but that race was a mile and a half. He did win the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial, going a mile and an eighth in his previous start by a comfortable margin. The mile and a sixteenth of this race should be a walk in the park. This isn’t an easy field by any measure but it is much easier than those he has been facing. But most of the runners, him included, do their best running on the lead. That just might open things up for a late runner. 6-CAPTIVATING MOON fits that description well. He has faced Two Emmys on more than one occasion and couldn’t get the best of that rival but today is another day. 4-BIZZEE CHANNEL faced top pick at Arlington three times in 2021 and beat that rival twice, while losing to him in the Grade 1 Mr D. He’s been lightly-raced this year, winning two of three starts with a poor effort in the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill. However, he was unable to use Lasix in that Churchill race which could account for that dull effort.

Race 7

3-PITAMAN could be dropping into the winning spot. He won his first start off the claim in his final start of 2021 but he’s been taking on tough rivals all of 2022. Should have a far easier time today. 4-OFFLEE FUN can close a ton. The pace is likely to set up and he’ll be carrying seven pounds less with the apprentice in the irons. 1-RED HOT DEVIL has speed and the rail. He just finished third vs. better on turf. Could be tough on the lead in this race.

Race 8

2-DRAFT CAPITAL reeled off four straight victories at AP last summer but was sent to Colonial after that to compete in the Grade 3 Virginia Derby and that winning streak came to an end. This will be his first race since August but he has been training well for his return. There should be more than enough pace to set up for his late run. Could be tough if he’s ready. 1-BETTER THINK TWICE won his last start of 2021 and won right back to beat Illinois breds in his first race of 2022. He’s taking on better open company today but he has every right to improve. Could extend his win streak to three. 6-JIMMY D finished second versus similar in last two. He displays good late run at times and the pace of this race should be favorable for him.

Race 9

Not in love with any in here but 9-I DON’T WANT TO GO might run off with an easy lead and never look back. She’s adding blinkers which should enhance her natural speed. Jumps up from bottom-level claimers and might be overlooked but she gets the top jock for a barn that is winning at a high rate. Will she or won’t she? 4-STORMY EMPIRE finished second in her last four races. She has yet to go off as favorite but think she’ll break that streak today. But, will she win this? We’ll know soon. 8-SUMMER BELLE is usually in the hunt in sprints. She finished a distant third and got DQ’d in last but she seems to fit well with this group.

Race 10

9-TAKE JOY seems most likely to graduate. She held on to finish second, as the odds-on favorite, in her local debut after taking a brief lead midway through the race. But now she’s had a trip over the course and she’ll be racing on a firm surface. Will be tough. 11-VIEWER’S DISCRETION finished about a length behind top pick in last. She was making her career debut in that spot. Could move up in a big way off that effort. 6-TRAIL RIDGE ROAD makes her career debut. Runners from her barn often improve with experience but her sharp works suggest that she’ll all set to go at first asking.

It’s been fun. See you in September.
SIMULCASTING FOR: SATURDAY, JUNE 25, 2022

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THOROUGHBRED RACING
CHURCHILL DOWNS
Post Time: 11:45 am
1st 4 Sure Wasn’t Me 7 Sweet Beauty 6 Slam Diego
2nd 1 Summer Promise 6 Key Of Life 4 Topsy
3rd 4 Justin’s Quest 6 Sonic City 3 Altered
4th 9 Yes Sir Robert 6 My Man Flintstone 4 Storm Advisory
5th 3 Twilight Blue 4 Fulsome 5 Chess Chief
6th 1 Short Summer Dress 2 Queengol 3 Alberta Sun
7th 5 Badgeball 9 Engrave 3 Lucky Devil
8th 5 Gun It 4 County Final 1 Surveillance
9th 7 Sconsin 3 Lady Rocket 1 Bayerness
10th 3 Favorite Outlaw 4 Top Of The Charts 11 Schmoozin

HARNESS RACING
WOODBINE/MOHAWK
Post Time: 6:00 pm
1st P 2 Exotic Dragon 9 Goodnight Irene 5 Dream Dancing
2nd P 8 Sport Secret 1 Twin B Heart Throb 2 Greatest Ending
3rd P 8 American History 7 East End 6 Wheels On Fire
4th P 10 No Free Lunch 2 Reagan Blue Chip 8 Bayfield Beach
5th P 1 Howies Man 2 Bootlegger Charlie 3 Acapulco Sunburn
6th P 2 Cowgirl Lilly 4 Kickin Cowgirl 7 Better Be Donna
7th P 5 The Greek Freak 4 B Stoney 10 Flyingevenbettor
8th P 6 Mayhem Like Me 4 Day Delight 1 Kount Blaster
9th P 1 Powertrain 7 Century Heineken 3 Pirate Hanover
10th P 4 Yacht Seelster 7 Shadow In Red 1 Stonebridge Rex

END





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