Ron Uchman’s Hawthorne analysis for Sunday, November 14th
Not a strong choice here but 6-MOMMAS BOY OTIS has had some decent races. He didn’t have the best trip in last when he was dropped to this level for the first time but he did get claimed from that race and he might have better luck for his new barn. 5-NOBEL finished far back in all his starts but he displayed good speed in last, going long, and he’s turning back to a sprint for this. Might still go for the lead and might last the distance. 4-COAL TOWN ROAD drops into maiden claimers for the first time. He tired badly in all his starts after showing early speed but he might be able to hang on longer against these foes.
4-AGAVE KID was overmatched in his first start of the meet. He had been running well on turf and poly at AP before getting here and he did finish second in his last start there are a higher level. But now he’s back to the right level. He could be the best of the speed at this level. Might last. 7-MAGIC MAN’S TOUCH comes off a strong second-place finish. The fact that was his first race since May suggests he might not have been at his best for that race but with that race under his belt, he could easily be the best of these. 1-BEE HAPPY ATTACK has had seven local races and finished third in four of them. Could wind up in the same position today.
5-AND WON has been primarily a turf runner but he’s been surprisingly good on the main track. He’s riding a three-race win streak. He was claimed from his last start and races for a new trainer today but he does keep the rider that has been aboard during this win streak. 10-P H FACTOR has to be caught. He scored in an amazing seven of 12 races this year. However, most of that success has been on turf or polytrack. Can’t guarantee he’ll be the same back on dirt. 1-NILES CHANNEL scored in two of his last three. Those wins came on Polytrack and turf but he did race competitively versus better on dirt at Oaklawn earlier this year.
Not in love with 1-JOURNEYIST but can’t make a great case for any others in here. She has been somewhat competitive in all of her races and this does appear to be the easiest field she has ever met. Seems most likely to graduate. 6-GREEN BANANAS has some decent drills. However, she’s making her debut for a barn that doesn’t often win with their first timers. Hard to really get the measure of this one. 4-RAP STAR is another first timer. Her workouts have been slow but she gets the top rider and she races for a barn that often does well with their first-time starters.
1-LUSCIOUS had only one workout since her last race at the end of September but she looks like the only true speed in the race. She ran well off previous layoffs. Has to be caught. 9-MY BOSS LADY finished second in her last two races. Both were contested at this level. But this time she has the advantage of a recent race over the track. It could make the difference. 6-PEREFCT DIVA didn’t fire from the outside post in her first start versus winners. Drew a better post but lost her rider to My Boss Lady. However, she does get the top jock in this one.
Rider Victor Santiago has been the pilot for many of these runners and he apparently chose to stay with 8-W W COOKIE MONSTER. Like Archiemyboy, he’s trained by Scott Becker. He’ll never be far off the pace. Could edge by late. 4-DEVILEYE has plenty of past class and, when if he fires, he could pass the rest like they are standing still. However he doesn’t fire often lately. Still, he’s always a threat. 10-LOCAMOTOR won his first three races easily and then just missed in a stakes race. However, he didn’t beat a rival in his last race and he had only one published drill in the two months since that last start.
6-HATCHET CREEK ran fourth in his first start of the meet and then improved to second for his last. Switches back to a veteran rider for this. He owns decent speed but might be better when coming from off the pace. Might be able to run by them all. 4-LASTFORTINOFAMILY has been knocking at the door. He was narrowly beaten by top choice last time they met. However, he’s still seeking his second win after 26 starts. Could be vulnerable again. 3-WHATA SHOW OFF has been in poor form but turns back in distance. Might finish with something left at this distance.
7-CHARLO was overmatched in her most recent start, and really in most of her races, but she runs much better when she faces claimers. Drops back in for a tag. Expect major improvement. 2-NEW RULES could fare better here. She was bumped in last and seemed to lose her desire but think she’ll show far more with a clean trip. 1-CAMPFIRE TALES owns good speed. She’s making her first start in two months but he trainer often wins with fresh horses.
SIMULCASTING FOR: SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2021
Wager at home with Wager.ClubHawthorne.com
Post Time: Noon
1st 6 Sonic City 5 Country Captain 4 Miacomet
2nd 4 Long Term Thinking 6 Aggressivity 5 Donnels Creek
3rd 3 Golden Account 9 Dance On Over 4 Lady Protonico
4th 2 Trumpet Lilly 3 Sum Kinda Pretty 7 Wave Of Goodness
5th 3 Coltonator 6 American Mandate 1 Mr. Hustle
6th 8 Fully Connected 10 Pressure 4 Back To Normal
7th 8 Drena’s Star 6 Yes He Can 1 Alexandros
8th 5 Blue Kentucky 1 Magnolia Midnight 8 Home Brew
9th 9 Social Matrix 8 Fast And Flirty 11 Delightof The Nile
Post Time: 6:00 pm
1st 3 Circleofcolor 4 Peach Bellini 5 Abuela Cori
2nd 9 The Filter 8 Sleeping Giant 7 Justin Front
3rd 6 Quanah 4 Sheltowee’s Bali 1 Violent Move
4th 2 Ryoan 4 Giro Kate 6 Warrior Empress
5th 9 Indian Gulch 10 Port Hunter 7 Tuf Intensity
6th 4 Southern Will 6 Jesse Jones 7 John Milton
7th 2 Pao De Queijo 1 Poca Mucha 7 Silver Maple
8th 2 Cool Spring 6 Foot Rub Love 8 Tuesday’s Rose