Ron Uchman’s Hawthorne analysis for Saturday, November 13, 2021
Going to give 9-VALIANT VINNY the edge. This race is scheduled for turf but this gelding has only won on the main track. He’s always been good here. He’s coming off a wire-to-wire win in the slop. Not sure he’ll be able to grab the early lead in this race but he might be able to put the rest away. 2-LOST IN MANHATTAN is another with a fondness for this track. Guessing he was entered in this race hoping it would come off the turf. He finished in the money in 10 of his 11 races this year, winning three times. Will be within striking distance from the start. Could run by at any time. 8-BASEBALL POLITICS might be the quickest of these. However, although he’s in good form, he’s still eligible for a non-winners of two and he’s giving up a lot in way of experience and success to all of his rivals. Will need to take it up a notch to wire this field.
1-ONE FLASHY GIRL was never really involved when they turned her back in distance and raised her in class for last but she did win her previous start at this distance. Gets reunited with leading rider Loveberry. Could get back on the winning track. 3-PAULETTE drops for her return to her favorite racetrack. She hasn’t been competitive yet this year but all three of her victories were scored here and she could awaken with the change of scenery and surface. 5-LITTLE CHICK just finished third vs. similar. However, she’s had 19 starts on this track and hasn’t visited the winner’s circle and she hasn’t won anywhere in a couple of years. But, this is a weak field and she could still be the best of the rest.
Another race likely moved to the main track. 12-GAGOOTS had been running primarily on turf but he scored a daylight victory in last when the race was moved to the main track. Of course, this field is tougher and that last race was contested in the slop but, if he runs the same way today, he’s likely to wind up back in the winner’s circle. 6-TWO COOKIE RULE finished second in his last two starts. His speed figures aren’t as high as those of many of his rivals but many of those “figs” were generated on turf. You have to appreciate his form. 2-EMPTY HOLSETR just missed on the turf, beating most of the runners in this field. He came from off the pace in that race but he wired the field, on dirt, in his only other local appearance and he broke his maiden that day. 10-RIVER FINN might be worth a look. He finished behind Empty Holster in last on turf but he just missed on dirt in his previous start.
5-FUTURE VISION drops back to an easier level. He couldn’t handle better at Indiana in last but he did finish second in his previous two starts. Should be near the lead throughout. 6-TOE THE LINE made a big middle move to grab the lead in his local debut but couldn’t sustain the drive and faded to a distant third. However, that gave him a trip over the track and experience helps. 4-OFF TO THE BEACH is still a maiden after 58 races but most of those have been against better. He’s often competitive at this level. Doubt if he’ll win but he has a great chance to fill out the vertical gimmicks.
Not crazy about horses dropping several levels but circumstances and the barn doing the dropping are key factors. 5-INDIAN SIGN is dropping quite a bit. However, he’s an Illinois bred that probably wouldn’t be competitive on a different circuit and his barn will soon be leaving here for the winter. So this drop makes sense. Still, there’s no guarantee that he’ll win this but he does look like the one they have to beat. 1-NUMERO PRIMO was favored in last, his first start as a winner but he didn’t get away from the gate alertly and then was forced to take up halfway through the race. He still managed to finish third. He’ll be much tougher if he gets a clean trip today.
3-KINGS STORY was an upset maiden winner in his last start and he might be able to rule again today. He owns better speed than most, with the possible exception of top choice. Could be gunning for the lead.
It’s bonkers that 3-BONKERS is still a maiden but that’s likely to end today. This well-traveled filly has always met tougher. She finished in the money in her last three starts, racing at Saratoga, AP and Presque Isle. She just missed in a game effort in Pennsylvania. Gets her revenge today. 4-EDEN is another who has been facing tougher. His recent form isn’t quite as good as top choice and the company he’s been facing might have been a little softer but his best could be good enough to win this. 5-MORRIE’S JOY could grab a share. She’s been racing competitively on turf, both in routes and sprints. She’s turning back in distance for her return to dirt racing and could finish with a ton of run.
1-W W FITZY finished far back in last but that race was contested on turf and she has never had much success on the lawn. But she has been good on dirt and that last race might have only been a prep for this. She owns good route speed but expect her to be tracking the pace with the turn back in distance. Might fly by all late. 6-JOLINA is in great form. She wired fields in her last two and three of her last four races. Not sure there is enough other speed in her to soften her up. Could lead every step of the way. 5-RACETOTHEFINISH is one of two runners in this field that scored in four of their last five races. His wins came downstate but his speed figures suggest that he’s quite capable of running with this group.
3-RADIANT CASTLE was simply overmatched in his most recent start. He fought for the lead early but wasn’t able to sustain that bid. However, he’s meeting easier today. Not quite sure why he contested the lead in last since he’s typically a closer but think he’ll be more effective today whether he goes for the lead or comes from off the pace. 6-SUPER SILVER is having a great year. He won two and placed in two from only five starts. He’s been especially good on “off” tracks, just in case that’s a factor today. He’s quick enough to go right for the lead but think it’s more likely that he’ll be stalking the pace in this one, poised to run by late. 4-LANDOFTHEPHARAOHS pretty much wired the field in last in a race with exceptionally slow fractions. But, he’s another that generally runs from off the pace. Not sure which scenario he’ll follow today.
1-LADY EXPRESS gets the nod. She just finished second at this level and was making progress late. For this race she gets an extra sixteenth to work with and she’ll be carrying 10 pounds less with the switch to an apprentice rider as pilot. 2-WINNING QUALITY was favored in last but finished third, four lengths behind Lady Express. But wouldn’t be surprised if she was able to overcome that foe. There’s no real “speed” in this race but 9-LIL BIT TIPSY just might be the quickest of these and could take it all the way if not challenged early.
SIMULCASTING FOR: SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2021
Wager at home with Wager.ClubHawthorne.com
Post Time: Noon
1st 5 Alberta Sun 4 Sariah Sariah 6 Off We Go
2nd 7 Nana’s Gray 3 Ring Me Darling 2 Surf Spa
3rd 2 Rushie 5 Sonneman 3 South Bend
4th 4 Gianna’s Gift 5 Absolute Love 1 Diva Banker
5th 2 Icy Stare Down 3 Lady Arsinoe 5 Bullet On Tap
6th 3 Charter Oak 4 Mr Creed 1 Long Crow
7th 5 Perfect Happiness 1 Miss T Too 6 Recoded
8th 7 Seven Flat 2 Marquee Ride 9 Hornbeam
9th 7 Pipeline Girl 5 Lady Danae 3 Girl With A Dream
10th 7 Frank’s Rockette 6 Belle’s The One 4 Sconsin
11th 1 Almanzo 10 Brawndo 8 Quick To Blame
Post Time: 5:20 pm
1st 8 LL Mystro 5 Mindtrip 1 Rycroft N
2nd 5 No Drama Please 1 Zlatan 3 Southwind Frost
3rd 1 Bettors Donttell 9 Hopnroll Heaven 7 Red Right Hand
4th 1 Typhoon Stride N 2 Itsrockandroll A 3 Billy Badger N
5th 9 Fast As The Wind 8 Pretender 7 Coach K Hanover
6th 2 Dorsoduro Hanover 6 Shoobee Doo A 5 Rockin The Aces
7th 7 Lilbitalexis 5 Misswalner Fashion 1 Palermo Hanover
8th 2 Semi Tough 6 No Lou Zing 4 Hail Christian N
9th 2 Niki Hill 3 Treacherous Dragon 9 Don’t Fence Me In
10th 7 Twin B Tuffenuff 1 Franco Totem N 2 Rockie Got Framed
11th 3 Hammering Hank 2 Captainryanmichael 1 Camouflage Money
12th 1 Sorella 9 Double Account 7 Beads
13th 5 High Baller 1 His Beats Hanover 3 Rollin In New York
Post Time: 6:00 pm
1st 1 Wind Blown 8 Traceur Hanover 6 Outlaw Aceofspades
2nd 5 Chantee 2 Southbeach Hanover 3 Beach Party
3rd 4 Victoria Invictus 8 Meadowbranch Noble 1 Shes Got Pizazz
4th 1 Play Jet Ray 7 Revolt 8 The Greek Freak
5th 3 Dabarndawgswatchin 10 Volez Delight 1 Best Head West
6th 5 The Shining 1 Century Hefner 3 Chuck The Cheese
7th 3 Imextraspecial 6 Up And Ready 7 P L Opportunity
8th 4 Cold Creek Cabo 5 Rockme Rollme 6 Highlandbeachlover
9th 8 Wheels On Fire 7 Sweet Deisel 6 Beyond Beter
10th 4 Excalibur Seelster 7 Wildriverbumblebee 1 Casimir Richie P