Ron Uchman’s Hawthorne analysis and Breeders’ Cup selections for Friday, November 5th
Wide open race where any of these can win. 10-TORN JEANS is lightly raced and just broke her maiden but she did run well in good turf maidens over the summer. The last two-turn race helped her stamina. Might lead this all the way. 2-NOFANSINTHESTANDS just missed in her first start after getting claimed by this barn. That race was scheduled for turf but moved to the main track. But loved the way she finished. Figures prominently. 7-PRINCESS D\'ORO hasn\'t had a lot of luck since getting claimed by this barn but her first race for them was too tough and she lost her rider in last. She\'s another that raced well against better runners in the past. Could surprise these.
5-SO ALIVE has been good on dirt but on turf…not so much. He’s back on the right surface to make his local debut. If speed is holding he probably doesn’t have a great chance but that seems to hold true for most of his rivals in this short field. We’ll see. 2-ANDREAS is back to meeting open company but also back in claimers. He’s been in great form lately with a pair of wins and a narrow loss for second in his last three races, though two of those races were contested on off tracks and the other on turf. Guess we’ll see if he might be vulnerable on a fast dirt track. 1-MINNESOTA LUCKY looks like the best, and maybe only, speed in the race. He’s been running out of gas in his recent races but a solo lead and a speed-favoring surface might get him home in front.
10-MONGOL BULL is always tough at this distance. This speedy gelding won 10 of his 28 races the distance and finished in the money another times. He\'s coming off a six-week freshening but this old-timer knows how to run well fresh. They\'ll have to catch him. 4-CHANNEL WON is another “experienced” runner. He\'s been meeting better without much success since getting claimed. But, at this level, he could easily wake up. 6-MASTER GUNS takes a much-needed drop in class. He\'s another that has done well at the distance, his only two wins came at the distance, but he has been meeting somewhat tougher. It\'s not that this race is much easier, he is still eligible for a non-winners of three, but the claiming level helps.
2-HINTON finished third in his first race of the meet and he raced well here in the past. He probably needed last after 10 weeks without a race. Could do even better today. 3-WATER PATROL could be the best of these. He’s dropping to probably the lowest level of his career to make his local debut. He’s also stretching out. Might display better speed at this level and distance. 1-ALLEGIANCE is hard to figure out. He’s had a couple of good races lately but both were contested on off tracks. His fast-track races leave a lot to be desired. But he did just finish third in slightly better company. Maybe.
Going to take a weird flyer in this race. 14-MARY OF BETHANY finished eighth in her last two races but both were sprints and she closed well in both of them. Especially like the way she made up eight lengths in the stretch of last. She\'s stretching out today. Drew the outside post but think she\'s still going to finish fast. 5-GLITTERARY finished first in his last three turf races, though he got DQ\'d from last. Especially like that he is so adept on soft turf. Could be the best of these. 11-EMBARRASSING is fresh off a good third-place finish in a state-bred stakes race. He hasn\'t won for years but he seems to fit well in this group. Could break through.
6-STORMINSIDE has been in terrific form this year. He won five of his last seven races and finished second in the other two. He showed little here in the past but he just dominated good claimers in his first start of the meet. Thinking he can do the same thing here. 3-FOLLOW THE SIGNS, unlike top choice, has been pretty effective here in his previous races. He was relatively ignored in his first start of the meet, his first with blinkers, and he flew late to finish second, less than a length back. Looks like the main competition. 7-NORTHSIDE has been claimed from his last three starts. However, he has been running well for every barn that gets him. He’s been having fading issues in the latter parts of shorter sprints but there’s always a chance that he’ll put away the other speed and finish with something left.
7-TIZ SUSAN ANN, one of many in here claimed from their last race, could get the right trip. She’s coming off an impressive victory, over somewhat easier, and things could set up for her the same way. Expect her to be racing right off the early pace. Will try to pass them late. 5-TRIPLE SCOUT, another recent claim, has been in good form almost all year. She’ll be coming from farther off the pace than top choice but she might be better equipped to take advantage of the early pace, especially if top choice winds up in a speed duel. 3-PRINCESS LIVIA has a great record at the distance-10 races, 3 wins, 3 place, 4 show, but she has been tiring late in her most recent starts. But, she is making her local debut. Might fare better here.
3-COSTANARMANDALEG could surprise. I’m going to ignore her last at Canterbury because she stumbled at the start. Instead I’ll look at her early races in Texas where she was far more competitive. Her efforts in those early races would surely make her a top contender here. 6-AH LEAH is certainly no lock but she is in relatively better form than most in here and she is coming off a neck loss. On the other hand, she ran out of gas late in that shorter sprint. Could easily be vulnerable. 5-LAURA N LUKAS is kind of one paced but she’s one of the few in here that doesn’t love ground in the final furlong. Maybe her 28th start as a maiden will be the answer.
THE BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
3-Go Bears Go
THE BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES
THE BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
THE BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE
THE BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF
SIMULCASTING FOR: FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2021
Wager at home with Wager.ClubHawthorne.com
Post Time: 1:55 pm
1st 4 Triple Tap 2 I’ll Stand Taller 1 Fratelli
2nd 8 Ready To Purrform 3 Degree Of Risk 1 Astronomer
3rd 3 Big Novel 5 At The Spa 2 Bold Choice
4th 8 Superstition 1 Hear My Prayer 2 A G Indy
5th 1 Joker Boy 3 I Know Cash Flow 12 Finneus
6th BC JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
8 Averly Jane 9 One Timer 6 Twilight Gleaming
7th BC JUVENILE FILLIES
6 Echo Zulu 5 Juju’s Map 3 Sequist
8th BC JUVENILE FILLY TURF
9 Koala Princess 5 Bubble Rock 1 Pizza Bianca
9th BC JUVENILE
1 Jack Christopher 4 Pappacap 2 Jasper Great
10th BC JUVENILE TURF
1 Modern Games 2 Albahr 10 Portfolio Company
Post Time: 5:20 pm
1st 2 Jerrytone 8 Rock To Glory 10 Fernado
2nd 5 Captain’s Reign 3 Just N Ace 1 Seeuinnashville A
3rd 1 Shoemaker Hanover 2 Fiji 8 Cimeronken
4th 3 Statesman N 1 Rockin Indy 7 Rockin Rambaran
5th 5 Bruce’s Magic 3 Parklane Jet 1 Bank Sea
6th 9 Runhappy Ten 2 Mayfield Duke 8 Mr McDreamy
7th 9 Tuxedo Bay 5 Thespywholovedme 10 Lyons Pegasus
8th 8 Double Account 6 Max 1 Hockey Hanover
9th 1 Exploit 3 Typhoon Stride N 6 Heza Real Diamond
10th 1 Milady Denver A 2 Vh Princess Brea 3 Anne Bonney N
11th 8 Stormont Ventnor 2 Top Flight Angel 1 Crossfit Mouse
12th 6 Major Occasion A 8 She’s Nun Bettor N 7 So Miki Hanover
13th 3 Lookatmyart 9 Western Showgirl 6 Pappy Rocks
Post Time: 6:00 pm
1st 1 Take A Gamble 8 Hippyjohn 6 Flash Cube
2nd 4 Four Finger Floyd 5 Control Heaven 6 Nytro J
3rd 4 Mystic 6 Deal With Lucus 7 Moscow Moon
4th 1 Trafalgar 3 Village Jade 7 My Mother Pearl
5th 7 Lauras Love 10 Just My Shadow 1 My Baby Girl
6th 10 Zig Zag 6 Darkangeldesbois F 3 Aces Bi
7th 1 Belina 8 Docs Delight 5 Witnessintheshadow
8th 3 Kount Blaster 4 Big Chic Magnet 5 Kinkaid Seelster
9th 2 Urntrouble Hanover 10 Storm Trotter 4 Wickenburgh
10th 2 Dark Moves 7 The Shining 6 Global Crush
11th 1 Lady Akila 2 Awesome Hill 3 Rocket Girl