Ron Uchman’s Hawthorne analysis for Saturday, December 4th
This field is full of perpetual maidens with the exception of one. 2-I DON’T WANT TO GO has had only one race and it was against better. He displayed brief speed there but could improve after getting race experience. 7-THE DOGMEN finished far back in last and he’s probably been better in routes but he had finished in the money in his four starts prior to last and he finished a close-up third the last time he was turned back to a sprint. 1-CATS VALENTINE finished up the track in his first eight races but he led from the start in last and held on to finish second. Not sure what happened but, if he runs like that again, he could wind up in the winner’s circle.
3-CRUSADER GIRL TOO, fresh off a third-place finish, drops once more. She beat starter allowance company two races back. Could make short work of this group. 5-REAL DE JALPA is another in good form. She finished third in her last two races and she’s also dropping to a better level for this. 9-KARA’S ANGEL finished well behind top choice in last but she was a dominant winner against slightly easier in her previous start. Good speed could send her to the lead. With a little luck she could stay there.
There’s no guarantee that 3-GHAALEB’S MAGIC will get the distance but she does seem likely to get the early lead and she could get there unchallenged. She faded badly in her only previous two-turn race but she’s been better on dirt. Has to be caught. 2-TANNAH’BLU hasn’t had a lot of success or experience on dirt but she did finish third here a year ago, the last time she raced on this surface. She’s making her first start for this barn after getting claimed back in October. Recent drills have been sharp. She could be the one. 6-RISKY RISKY RISKY stretches out. She finished up the track the last time she took on Illinois allowance company but that was in a sprint. She could be tracking pace set by top choice, poised to take over if that rival falters.
Not sure 4-JOSIE BOY could be considered a standout but he does look like the one to beat. He did finish third in his two local starts while few of his rivals have shown much. Like that he had a bullet drill since his most recent race. Might get it done. 6-BIRD KEY could surprise. He’s had 25 races and remains a maiden but most of those races took place on turf or Polytrack. He’s had eight starts on dirt and finished second in five of them, including his last three. 3-GOOD SUGAR tired in his local debut but he was racing for the first time in six weeks and that race was a sixteenth longer. Should benefit from that trip and the cut back in distance.
8-STORMY PACIFIC dominated in last, his first race after getting claimed by this barn. He went off as the odds-on favorite in that race. Faces somewhat tougher here but wouldn’t be surprised if he repeated. 3-CHARLIE IRISH didn’t show a thing in 2019 but he’s starting off this new decade with a drop in class. Turn back in distance and the top rider in the irons could be the key. 1-VBREEZE, the ancient warrior, finished third in two of his last three. He sports a terrible win percentage but recent success and the drop in class should be worth a second look.
7-JE SUIS BELLE might pull off the surprise. She could be in a little over her head and she’s coming off her worst race in a long time but she looks like the only real speed in this race. She seems to dig in late when given a little breathing room early. Might outlast them on the lead. 3-IMA LITTLE KITTEN fits well. She started waking up in last when blinkers were put back on for the first time in a year. Slight improvement puts her squarely in the hunt. 9-DONTOUCHTHATDIAL figures prominently. She ran well in her first three races but was too far back early in last and never recovered. Switches back to the rider who was aboard for those first three starts. Should wake back up.
1-IRISH PROUD was in great form for most of 2019 and figures to pick up right where he left off. He won his last at this level and has also been tough against this type of foe, no matter the surface. 2-COUNTRY COOL steps up in class but he did win his last two races. He’ll be tracking the pace today. Could edge by late. 3-OFFLEE FUN was in too tough in last couple but he can close a ton when he’s at the right level and he’s at the right level today.
5-CODETOWIN could live up to his name once again. He won his last three, four of his last five, and five of his last seven. Plus, he ran well in the races he lost. Could be worth the probable short price. 7-TAP FEVER won his two local starts by daylight. He had been a router in California but seems better going short. Got claimed from last and takes on a bit better in this one but he could continue to roll. 2-LEE’S LUCK could get a share. He’s been good in recent sprints. Presser should be close throughout.
9-RACETOTHEFINISH could be tough. She went off as the odds-on favorite in her lone race and led for all but the last couple of jumps. She’ll be fitter after that race. Might never look back. 10-WAR COLORS ran well in all her local starts. She finished third in state-bred stakes in two of her last three races and second in the race in between. She’s meeting open company today but racing with blinkers on for the first time. That might do the trick. 6-PRETTI EXTREME is another that has been racing competitively; both at Keeneland and Canterbury. She races for a barn that has been red hot here since opening day. It could be her graduation day.