Ron Uchman’s Hawthorne analysis for Thursday, November 14th
Not sure this race will be contested on the lawn so was looking for a runner, or runners, that could do well on both. However, landed on 2-SHOGOOD. He’s had limited starts on dirt but two were in stakes races at Oaklawn and the last time he raced on dirt was a two-furlong race. Plus, he has a couple turf-sprint wins at the distance. His local drills suggest he can handle the dirt. He’s dropping to his lowest level ever. Maybe awakens at this level. 5-SILENT FAME never raced on dirt but his works on the surface haven’t been bad and he’s been in good form on the weeds. Could be tough on either surface. 8-BOSTON CHARLIE does handle both surfaces, though he stopped badly in last on the lawn. However, he did wire the field in his previous race at AP. He doesn’t win often anymore but he is quick and he could be a forward factor throughout.
The well-bred Carolyn Wilson homebred, 3-WEATHERFORD, has been training well for a barn that wins with a high percentage (37%) of their first-time starters, though their percentage in maiden claimers is a bit lower. Most of the field he’s facing haven’t show much. Can win at first asking. 1-GEMO RAIN is the one to beat. He’s had two races at this level and finished second in both. Both his races were contested on an off track and he just might get that condition again today. Experience can make the difference. 5-SOPHIA’S SLUGGER faded late in his two starts after displaying good speed but he’s been gelded since his last race and he’ll be running with Lasix for the first time. Could wake up with a bang.
Going to give 3-APPEALING AUDREY a slight edge. She’s been in good form on the lawn and her drills on the main track suggest that she could still be competitive if the race does get moved to dirt. She might have been a little short in her first start of the meet since she was making her first start in two months. That shouldn’t be a problem for this. 5-NO CACHA NA might be entered for turf but she’s been far better on the main track and I imagine her connections expect this race to be moved to dirt. She’s had 21 dirt races and won seven of them, including seven in the slop. She was beaten as the favorite in her first start for this barn but there’s a good chance she’ll make amends if this race gets moved to the main track. It took 4-CLOCHE 11 starts to break her maiden but she looked sharp doing it in her local debut. She was in some pretty tough fields in most of her maiden races. Wouldn’t be too surprised if she was able to make it two in a row.
3-LITTLE BALTAR goes for his third straight win. He’s still eligible for this race under the way the conditions were written. This race might be shorter than what he prefers but it might not make any difference. 1-IRISH STOUT just missed at this level and distance in Indiana. That was the first time he was dropped to this level. Figures to be a major player in his Hawthorne debut. 7-AMAROQ is another coming off a narrow loss. That was his first race back on Lasix since last year. Could easily improve off that effort.
3-WAR COLORS seems most likely. She raced well in her previous two maiden races and even finished third in a state-bred stakes race in her last start. Her main obstacle in this spot could be her running style. She likes to come from out of it and there might not be enough pace to set things up for her. 7-COLUMBIA CLIPPER heads back to the main track and turns back in distance. She never raced on dirt and her lone good race came on the lawn but her speed figures suggest she could be the only one capable of giving War Colors a run for the money. 8-ROCK THE BIRDHOUSE makes her debut. She’s had some decent workouts. Her barn doesn’t start many first timers or babies but they’ve had some success in both categories.
3-JOLLY GHAALY might be the best of the speed. It’s been over two months since his last race but his barn brings them back ready. He won his debut here last year but ran into the talented Colonel Klink in his next start. Recent works are sufficient. Has to be caught. 5-TAP FEVER won his local debut which was also his first start for this trainer, his first race outside of California and his first race in 10 months. He’s taking on tougher here and his speed figures don’t appear to be a match but he should be much fitter with a race under him. The pace could set up. 8-OH SO TALL could challenge for the lead. He’s been off a while but training well Has to outduel top choice for the lead but it just might happen.
1-CHAINMAIL just got up in last to win by mere inches. That was quite different from her maiden win here in April when she won by 13. In any case, she’s two for two on this track. She’s meeting a bit better here but most of her rivals aren’t in great form. Could stay unbeaten at Hawthorne. 6-LION LOVE finished third in her first start of the meet. She’s stretching out for this race and she has been primarily a sprinter but she did win a mile race, by nine, at Arlington earlier this year. Figures prominently. 5-KURINGAL is another coming off a victory. This versatile lady hasn’t raced in another six weeks and she hasn’t done well off previous layoffs but she should still be considered.
3-RISKY RISKY RISKY drops and turns back in distance. With so much speed in this race, she’s likely to be sitting well off the early pace and save her best move for the stretch run. 6-RAGATAGTAG was claimed from her last start back in August. She only seemed to get good when they moved her to turf and this race is on the main track, but her new barn wins with 33% of their first-time claims and 32% of those coming off similar layoffs. 2-NEW RULES, stablemate of top choice, might be the best of the speed. She wired the field for her maiden score in her last at AP. Has had only two drills in the two months since her last start but this barn wouldn’t race her if she wasn’t ready.
Not in love with any in here but 3-SEQUIN’S STORM owns better speed than most. He tired late in last but that was still a much-improved effort over his previous start and that race was a sixteenth farther than this one. 9-FORTHWITH took the lead quickly and never looked back in his local debut. Meets a bit tougher today, last was a maiden, but he might be able to do exactly the same thing in this race. 8-MAJESTIC HERO will be coming late. He was claimed from last. He finished second in his last two races. If a speed duel does develop, he could run by them all.