Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 ON K P will give up recency off the layoff though is back in the right spot to compete. He has stood competitive over this course and sprint distance with the majority of his local races to date contested in allowance company with the exception the lone win when in for the $25k tag in a N2 condition. His figures remained consistent with each start on or above par for today’s event including that win, an 89 figure a number that stands out above every race from the others in this field. He has enough tactical speed to put himself in the race at the 5.5f distance with class/finishing ability. Coming off the layoff can be the main hurdle that should come with some price compensation and one that is value as the third choice. Oh, and J. Loveberry has the call. 

Assessing the favorites: #4 TRIBEST has recorded some of the higher figures in the field and done so recently as she makes her second start of the cycle and on this circuit a fit in this race; #7 GRACEFUL SCARLET will take a class drop despite making the change to run against older here. Manley has a group of these runners out from California, and they have held their form and raced competitively here. Number wise GRACEFUL SCARLET has recorded higher figures than her older, seasoned, locally based IL-bred stablemate #6 TU ROYAL.

#3 BOYCE’S BANDIDA wheels back under similar conditions though a higher race par and could find company on the front end with #1 MAGGIE E along the rail and coming back with the weight break as R. Blanche takes the call. #5 PEGGY’S WAY also has shown early speed, she is draw outside that duo and should assist on trip here as well as the preferred distance change back to ONE_TURN.

A contentious pace should assist #2 IMAGE OF CURLIN, and trainer H. Irion has already sent out a deep closing winner this meet. The connections claimed her back in December and makes a lateral class change from the GP events to suggest she can hold her form here. Something that appears reasonable compared to a big move forward as a 5yo mare. 

The pair for E. Lopez fit as well as any in this group and should present value in their own right and in this field:

#1 JOCELYN looked to need the start (PREP) opening week and showed more run (MOVE, GALLOP+) to suggest she should appreciate the race over the track and for today’s conditions the added ground. They will add the blinkers here and possible worked in the blinkers after the race last month with the recorded move on 4/10. In addition, she could project to show speed with the rail draw, weight break and route distance – similar tactical approach to the November race and show finish.

#4 LIGHTNING MELODY making her first start on this circuit and belated return to MCL company. She could move up naturally and has the two turn foundation and coming off a less than ideal trip back in February. 

#4 DEVIL does not have to face off against her state bred stablemates here and fits in the role as the race favorite. She has consistently recorded some of the higher figures in this field and drawn favorable for her runstyle in today’s race shape. #6 CHERYL’S APPEAL could wind up a close second choice given the connections and coming back under similar conditions for this second start on the quick three week turnaround. While she did not have must to endorse first out, she broke SLOG and was in hand (NO_PUSH) not asked for her best behind Devil and her open length pacesetting stablemate winner, Beehive, in a race that did not have much change in running order.

#1 JOYZELLA made a positive PRERACE+ appearance of the layoff last month, though was a touch overmatched against open company. She also took KICKBACK and was not asked (NO_PUSH) late something that R. Blanche must work out from the rail and could trip to see them more assertive here. She has just the two starts in her career in statebred MSW company and those are the two place finishing sitting towards the top of her past performances resulting in the place finishes. 

#5 BROKEN HEARTS BAY will get another look In this group and coming back at this level with an extra furlong for this second start of the meet. She fit off the prior form and stakes placement from last summer at PRM. As far as the 3/30 race she broke SLOG and TROUBLE_S making a MOVE through TRAFFIC to improve position though had too much to do as the top three ran 1-2-3 around the track.

The winner Wild Bout Hilary trained by T. Tracy and ridden by J. Loveberry, and that combination return here with #4 FIRST LOVE one that has some class questions as she takes the rise in par for this race. The class test will also follow stablemate #6 HIGHWOOD one that was dominant on the front end on debut and has some challenges a this is just a second start and faces seasoned and many older rivals.

#1 NO TAPPIN OUT takes a lateral change in class and looks well-intended in this spot. Value wise she might not offer much compensation, however logical. One should also keep the Young barn on the radar as they are making it look easy sending out four starters and a perfect 4-for-4 win result and will be represented here by #2 FAST N HAPPY one of those winners this meet that will be required to step up against winner, though ahs some back numbers in line with the recent maiden win.

#5 U. S. HONOR MAP made his route debut the recent start coming off the layoff and should condition from that start wheeling back in two weeks to the familiar sprint distance. He has form over this course with a pair of races last spring at the higher $25k N2 level. Perhaps his edge along with the recency and potential intent is runstyle. There are many in this field that want and appear to need the lead and he is not one of those runners that can stalk and make their move.

#1 MODAZZLE is also not a need the lead type though has tactical speed and should be sitting on a peak effort in this third start off the layoff and with improving numbers race to race. #7 WEST ISLAND could hold the edge of the front runners coming into this race with current form at this N3 level and figures on par. He is not a “need the lead” type and stalked in the most recent win on the turf at the two turn distance at CBY last year. 

#4 IZEONEDEC looks to have found the right spot if there ever was one to clear this N2 condition. His form and figures stack up as the horse to beat in this race and perhaps the biggest hurdle is himself as he is not a “win machine” and that more than anything could open up the race to others.

#2 PALHACO is the one to get creative with as he makes his second start of the meet and under similar conditions from the 3/31 event. Going back to that day, he did not appear race ready WASTED a lot of energy prerace and in running made a WIDE RUSH into a solid pace before losing ground and could project a move forward all things considered.

#3 MINNESOTA MOON did nearly wire the field twice while in his maiden days over this course and distance recording numbers not far off IZEONDEC on his better days. Quinonez stablemate #8 PERFUMER has a strong late kick and there is a scenario where he can get things done from off that pace, though more likely to run on and pass horses late for a share.

O. Hernandez will shift to #7 ARMAVIR one that benefit from racing and their handling for the maiden win. That race was on the turf and after a few starts, something that could be required here at the same time fits as a “new” face making just the first start in for this lower claiming tag. #1 HAWAIIAN HIDE AWAY will look to keep up the strong win streak for Young coming back from their maiden win last month. Their figures and outcome improved with the change in claiming company and while a step up from two weeks ago, they fit with others here. 

#3 ESSENTIAL BELLA could be live here for the connections and first start on this circuit. She will find class relief and a softer par than she has not seen in a long time and the time off could be what was required after a long season that started in December and without too many breaks and a lot of racing through the calendar year.

#6 SUMMER AT THE SPA should be at the right level to compete on this circuit and has been able to transfer her form from route to sprint. The surface is another question, and she has had just limited dirt starts all by default on a surface switch. Her figures on the dirt were not as strong as her turf/synth numbers though at this level, she might not be required to run her fastest career race to compete.

From a pace standpoint, #7 PLAY TWENTY could be the controlling speed and the race could be over at the first call if she gets clear. She has had some gate issues though quick and showed that last out, the race two weeks ago with the pace Fast early and late despite being LONE and perhaps played a role in the lack of finish. She was also a Q1 Circle on both Standard and Surface/Distance and upgraded on Standard as a Square here. 

Sprinters in the opener as 3-COALMINER'S KITTEN could be a short favorite but is the likely winner to open the day. He ran a solid race in his last, beaten by a good winner in Schmoozin, who came back to win his next out. He should be able to rate close in here as well as there isn't much pace in this race. 6-COUNTRY GUY has been well placed in races to open his career, winning half of his six lifetime starts. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez is off to a great start on the meet and bug boy Navas has learned to ride this track very well. 2-ON K P has talent and picks up Loveberry in this spot. He has shown ability on turf or dirt and I wouldn't be surprised if he was hustled into contention early in here.

This race came up quite competitive for this level as I gave the nod to 7-GRACEFUL SCARLETT in here. She comes in from California, a move that this owner and trainer have been successful with in the past. She is working consistently toward her return and will get ample pace to chase. 4-TRIBEST (ARG) ran a good race in the slop in her last, running on late for place. She should get a similar stalking trip in here as the only concern is the 0 for 12 lifetime in the win column. 3-BOYCE'S BANDITA ran a solid race in the same spot as Tribest last out. She got away well and chased into the lane before giving way late. With Emigh out of town, Ulloa picks up the mount.

Very little in regards to pace in this race as the likely favorite 3-ANNA AFTER MIDNIGHT looks to be the controlling speed in here. She stretches out today off a race where she was pushed on the front end. She has gradually improved with each start and Felix is riding quite well. 7-GOOD MAGIC WOMAN comes in from Florida for this spot as she may look to rate a bit closer early as well. She posted a good work over the track here last week and is another that is on the improve. 5-MULSANNE (IRE) could be a bit of a sleeper in here as bug boy Navas gets in the saddle today. Although winless in 19 starts, she has found the board eight times and a fast track return will be welcome in here.

Another spot where the chalk will be tough as 4-DEVIL figures to be a heavy favorite. She chased Beehive in her last and battled to the wire. She looks to be the quickest to the front in here and runs for a barn that's off to a great start this meet. 8-I DID THE MATH ran a decent race in her last and could improve in her second start of the meet. Trainer Rednour chooses this spot over a race at Fairmount as the larger purse may have been the draw. All trainer Terry Young has done this meet is win as he sends out 7-LIONS LAW. She makes her second career start as she gets Lasix for the first time. She was hung wide the entire way in her debut in Indiana last year and has since worked consistently toward her return.

Competitive allowance bunch in the fifth with a pair of speedy ones from the barn of Tanner Tracy. It appears 4-FIRST LOVE could be the fastest to the front as she comes off a good maiden score in her last. She went very fast in that spot and never looked back. She has since posted a pair of good works over this strip and could be primed for another top performance. 1-NO TAPPIN OUT ran a good race from the outside draw in her last as she was able to find a good spot early and ran on late. She has some tactical speed and will benefit if the pace upfront is contested early. 2-FAST N HAPPY is another runner for the hot Young barn as she ran a huge race from the outside draw in her last. The added eighth should only help but she will be another that will need some pace to chase.

Looking like there could be a contested pace in here which will likely help 1-MODAZZLE to rate and run into contention late. He ran evenly in his first start of the meet but has posted a win at this distance. Gallardo returns in the saddle as a ground saving trip should be beneficial in here. 5-U S HONOUR NAP is another that figures to rate and run on late. He turns back in distance off a route race in the slop a couple of weeks ago. Let's see if he improves at a price in his second out of the meet. 7-WEST ISLAND will be very tough as he figures to show speed and contend the entire way. He chased the pace in his last but may be looking to clear against these.

Not sure there's another others fast enough early to go with 7-PLAY TWENTY in this race. She has good early speed and comes off a solid effort while facing better in her last. Her best races are on the front end as she is a horse that the connections thought enough of to claim back last summer. 4-AUNT STELLA has been good at this distance and was a solid winner in her last. The two horses that finished behind her in that spot came back to win their next starts. Expect her to rate and run on late. 6-SUMMER AT THE SPA makes her second start off the claim as she has worked consistently toward her return. While sprinting, she figures to rate back early and run on late but let's see if she gets enough pace to chase.

3-COALMINER’S KITTEN was a game second here opening weekend while making his first start for this barn and his local debut. He fought for the lead for most of the race but gave way late. The winner of that race came right back to win another. That race was his first sprint in his 11-race career but he handled it well. Figures to improve from the experience.  2-ON KP returns from a lengthy layoff to face the easiest field of his career. His works have been slow, even on a track that has been playing fast, but he owned sharp speed in the past. Loveberry aboard is a positive factor. 6-COUNTRY GUY’s speed figures lag behind those of many of his rivals’ but he did win his last two in New Orleans and his barn was on fire last weekend. Worth another look.

5-PEGGY’S WAY could graduate. She’s a 3-year-old facing mostly older rivals and she hasn’t raced since October but she has a strong series of drills, she’s making her first start for a barn that sports a lofty 40% win average with runners starting for them for the first time, she’s getting first Lasix, she’s dropping to her lowest level yet, and her rider won with 13 of his 40 runners at the meet. It doesn’t hurt that her trainer is also red hot. 4-TRIBEST might want more distance but she did close well at this distance to finish second in her local debut. Figures to get the same kind of trip, though probably on a fast track, this time. 7-GRACEFUL SCARLET didn’t show much when she was racing, facing California breds last year, and she went off at huge prices in all those starts. But she’s another getting Lasix for the first time. She moved to a new barn that does well with runners debuting for them as well as runners returning from long layoffs. Expecting far more from her today.

3-ANNA AFTER MIDNIGHT will have to be caught. She has only competed in sprints until now and she ran out of gas in all of then but can see her building a commanding lead with the stretch in distance and might be able to hang on. Can’t ignore 7-GOOD MAGIC WOMAN. She’s shipping in from a tougher meet. She’s not likely to be anywhere close to the lead early but is likely to be gaining on top pick late and might be able to run by. 6-ALTAR GIRL hasn’t gotten close but she has been racing regularly and is likely fit enough to get the distance. Facing the easiest field of her career doesn’t hurt.

4-DEVIL ran well in all her dirt sprints. She was just second to her talented stablemate Beehive but she also finished seven lengths ahead of the third-place finisher. She’s not the only speed in the race but think she’ll ultimately be the best. Graduates today. 1-JOYZELLA has been tough in all her races against Illinois breds but, for some reason, they keep trying her against open company. Not today! She’s in where she belongs. She’s had 16 starts and only two have been against state breds and she finished second in both. Her speed figures compare with those of top choice. Just maybe. Neither 6-CHERYL’S APPEAL nor 7-LION’S LAW showed a thing in their respective lone races but Cheryl’s Appeal races for the top barn and the trainer of the well-bred Lion’s Law won with all four of his starters at this meet. 

4-FIRST LOVE is the best of the speed. She wired her last two races that were contested on fast tracks, though she obviously didn't like her off-track races contested in between those wins. She's meeting better today but they'll have to catch her. 1-NO TAPPIN OUT is the “logical” selection. She has been in pretty good form in Kentucky. However, all of her races came on synthetic racetracks and I couldn't even find a dirt workout. There's no guarantee that she'll handle this surface. 2-FAST N HAPPY can't be overlooked. She graduated in last, her first start here and her first for this barn. Came from the 12 hole in that last race to win going away. Her barn won with their first four starters at the meet. Beware. 5-BROKEN HEARTS BAY will be coming late. She didn't fare well at this level in her first start of the meet but could get a better trip with the extra real estate. 3-LIL CHILLY seems more versatile than most. She won two of her last three races in Louisiana though those races were against Louisiana breds.

There is an abundance of speed in this race but 7-WEST ISLAND has shown the ability to last under pressure. He pressed the pace through blistering fractions in his local debut and held on to finish second. That race could have primed him for this one. 6-SOVIET STANDARD is probably the best of the speed and he's dropping in class. However, he had only one workout prior to his first start of the year, where he stopped badly, and apparently doesn't have a work since. Not sure he'll be able to carry his speed the extra sixteenth mile. 2-NEW DICE will never be considered a serious closer but he is one of the few in here that has shown some ability to run on late. Could make a stretch run and possibly share.

3-MINNESOTA MOON stretches out. He finished fourth in both races this year but both were sprints and he's been better going long. With the stretch in distance and two solid races under him, he just might be tough on the lead. 4-IZEONDEC just finished second at this level. The barn was red hot last weekend. The fire can continue. 8-PERFUMER never really fired in his first start of the meet but he probably needed the race. The pace of this race could set up for a closer and he could be the ideal candidate to take advantage.

7-PLAY TWENTY drops. She displayed good speed in her two races this meet but those races were a little tougher. She should be far harder to catch with the drop to this level. 4-AUNT STELLA was a game winner in last. She fought for the lead for much of the race but still was able to draw off late. A similar effort today could get her back to the winner's circle. 3-ESSENTIAL BELLA makes her first start for this barn. She hasn't been in the best of form but runners moving to this barn often improve.

Race 5:  4 - 1 - 3

Late Pick 4 ticket:  1,3,4 / 1,2,3,5,6,7 / 1,4 / 6,7  ($36)

#4 First Love (7-2) might be going, going, gone in this affair. Although the Kantheros filly is stepping up in class theoretically, an open $30k claimer at the Fairgrounds equates well to an N1X condition here at Hawthorne. She is simply the speed of the speed and will try to “bottom out” the field from the start. Loveberry will be aggressive early and hope to clear, then hang on. If the rail horse is up close, that might pose a problem for First Love late as she’s in fine form as well coming from Turfway Park with Felix in the irons. 

Race 6:  5 - 7 - 3

For some reason, I just don’t trust the big morning line favorite, #7 West Island (7-5). He’s going to be odds-on at post time but is vulnerable especially if the #3 I’m Your Captain is aggressive early. Therefore, I’m going to take my first stab of the day on the top end with #5 U S Honour Map (8-1). I like the cutback in the distance and he appears to be one of the few in the race that are capable of passing. I’m hoping jockey Hernandez takes back and makes one run…maybe the race will collapse late and he can pick up the pieces at a nice price. 

Race 7:  1-4-5

#1 Hawaiian Hide Away (7-2) was able to set some decent fractions and hold on well when breaking his maiden 2 weeks ago. I don’t see a lot of early gas in the field, and the morning line favorite has a closing style that might not fit this race’s pace profile. I’d like to see Felix be aggressive from the inside with a short run into the first turn and give the gelding every opportunity to wire another field. 

Race 8:  4-6-7

Although it’s rare for conditioned claimers to win two races in a row, #4 Aunt Stella (3-1) looks to do just that in the finale. She looked awfully good in winning a straight $5k claimer three weeks ago, and now faces a non-winners of two-races-in-a-year group. She received her 2nd highest Beyer top of her career last time, so maybe I should be more skeptical today. On the other hand, this is a pretty weak group and I see no reason why she can’t repeat again.

P 3 Timely Bet 9 Bringithometome 5 Artsalive

P 3 Tells On A Roll 2 Style For A Mile 1 So Much More

P 8 Command 3 Ron 1 Dupree Hanover

P 10 Shes Got It All 4 Ethel 5 Glenboro

P 6 Code Cracker 3 Uhtred 1 Twin B Powerball

P 6 Write Me A Rose 1 No Control 3 Speaker Of Peace

P 6 Brookdale Johnny 5 Sauble Ace 2 Always A Thrill

P 3 Wheels On Fire 5 Codename Cigar Box 7 Stone Carver

P 7 Taurasi 6 Emmetts Buddy 3 Whichwaytothebeach

P 8 Alabama Hannah 7 Shoot The Whiskey 6 Settn A Precedent

P 4 Frankie Frankie 7 Larceny 3 Nazare

P 8 Hesincontrol 9 Lets Tie One On 1 Toronto