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Sat June 13th, 2026 |
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Emily's Analysis
Churchill Downs Race 4
Post Time 4:15 PM CST
#6 INSIGHTFUL MISS sits at fair odds with the assigned 8-1 ML to consider in this spot. At first glance on the OptixPLOT, they could present a pace advantage (Q1) racing forward and a change in Plot position from their most recent start, 4/30 at Oaklawn Park. In addition to that Plot change, they find the class DROP projected and time between starts to reset after the Oaklawn meet without taking a suspicious drop to run here.
Woodbine Race 1
Post Time 3:00 PM CST
#1 HOLIDAY WITH AMY finds many positive changes to move forward in this spot. This race is the second start of the season, coming in from the layoff on 5/15 had TROUBLE_S racing inside/SAVED TRAFFIC while recording a B- OptixGRADE in the show outcome. As far as class, overall this can be seen as a lateral move given the higher purse while also finding a much lower race par. Today's par is much lower than any race they have seen sprinting on the Tapeta since the win last June. That win was with a similar second off pattern albeit 7f distance. Trip will be key (price compensation required) with their off the pace runstyle, though should have pace to chase as a Large Q4 Square with the Fire Contention and higher SpeedRate.
Woodbine Race 2
Post Time 3:29 PM CST
Longshot #6 TRUE SHOT is legitimate longshot in this race as they require a new top effort while also a trip from off the pace. In terms of trip, they should have pace to run at with the Sun/55 SpeedRate along with more than half of the field sharing the E/EP runstyle and majority of the field above the ParLine - a scenario to assist "closers" the position for TRUE SHOT as a Large Q4 Square.
The logical #4 KING ROSSO fits in that role "bullseye" Square whereas second choice ML #5 MOTION GRANTED potentially compromised with the mentioned pace scenario.
#9 BRITISH ARTILLERY also fits logical back from the layoff, on the inner course, and claiming condition where they have previous raced competitively.

