Handicapper Tips & Picks

Not in love with 3-SAPPHIRE NIGHTS by any means but even less fond of her rivals. Her last race was one of the best in her career, putting a halt to a long series of poor efforts. Making her case even stronger is that her second-place finish there was coming out of what would be considered a “key” race, when at least two members of the field came back to win their next start, which the first and third runners did. But her form prior was dismal and she lost the services of the apprentice rider so she will be carrying an additional five pounds. Her only real competition, however, would seem to come from stablemate 4-HEAVENLY HASH. That filly broke her maiden in last, her first start for this barn, her first start at Hawthorne and her first on dirt. She utilized the same rider as top choice in that prior race and, without his allowance, will be carrying seven pounds additional and taking on “tougher” rivals. 6-MS KS DYNASTY also broke her maiden in last. However, that race was last year and it was on synthetic surface. Her best races came in routes, including her win, so must wonder if this race is too short for her.

6-SET THE PACE could be ready to do just that. She’s making her first start since October but she has been training well for a barn that wins with a high percentage of runners coming off similar layoffs. She isn’t the only speed in the race and she might need the tightener but believe she put away the other speed and have something left for the stretch run. 1-BLESSED ANNA was favored in her local debut but had to settle for a third-place finish. Although she has shown decent speed in the past, I think she’ll be tracking the pace today. Her last two races came on off tracks so and two of her five wins came on “wet” surfaces so if weatherman’s advance forecast is current, it could turn out to be to her advantage. 3-IZZY’S MONSTER has four wins to her credit but, according to speed figures, her second-place finish in last could have been her best race yet. She generally does her best running late but she did have a near wire-to-wire winning effort a few starts back. Figures prominently.

6-COCKTAIL CUTIE displayed unusual speed, for her, in her first start outside California. She just missed hanging on. She’s meeting a similar group of runners, though this field might contain more early speed. Might be taken a bit off the pace with the hope of coming on late. 3-FERGIE ATTACK doesn’t own blistering speed but she does appear to be the quickest member of this field. She tired in last but was chasing a tough winner while making her first start since October. 5-COWGIRL FRANKIE doesn’t always fire but, when she does, she can close a ton. Has a legitimate chance to mow them down in the stretch.

Closer 1-MILLARD’S SMILE was able to take advantage of a fast pace in last and proceeded to fly by the field late. If anything, the pace of this race could turn out to be even more favorable. Not only will the two members who fought for the lead in last return in this one, but they will be joined by a couple others that relish the front end. 7-BLOOMING GARDEN was overmatched in his first start of the meet but there’s a good chance that he’ll be the best of the speed with the drop to this level. Not sure he’ll be able to clear the field but his presence should certainly guarantee a quick pace which helps the chances of top choice. 2-STORM BORN is another possibly capable of coming on late, although he is often sent for the lead. But, if he’s allowed to relax early, he could pass the tiring speed runners in the stretch.

Have to give 5-DIALED INNA the benefit of the doubt. Her two races this year were awful but both were against better rivals than these. They drop her into a more favorable condition today. She’s had the versatility in the past to handle any pace. Should wake up at this level. 7-EMITYAAZ and 2-TIMELESS GLORY dueled for the lead in last and both held on well to finish third and second, respectively. However, that was Emityaaz’s first race of the year and she should be fitter after that effort while Timeless Glory will carry an additional seven pounds with the switch to a journeyman rider. Might switch their finish order because of those changes.

Love the versatility of 8-READTHECLIFFNOTES. Obviously this 9-year-old has lost a few steps but he is as game as they get. He won 10 of his 17 local races, nine of 17 at the distance, and he’s two-for-two on off tracks. Don’t think he’ll get involved in an early speed duel with his younger rivals but do expect him to have dead aim late. 6-CAMP DADDY was impressive when wiring the field in his local debut. However, like top choice, he’s been just as impressive when coming from off the pace. If he goes for the lead again they might not catch him but, even if he doesn’t, expect him to be a factor nearing the wire. 4-ARDENWOOD owns good speed but he does tend to tire. He won four of five in 2023 but hasn’t even hung on to finish in the money in five 2024 starts.

6-KINGSWOOD only raced evenly in his local debut but think that race was a little tougher than this one and he did have some trouble. He’s at his best when tracking the pace so he needs an alert break to get him into position quickly. 5-JRUE BREEZE and 2-MAQAMAT both drop from a tougher condition. Neither showed much there in their last couple races but both are eligible to improve in this one.

5-SECESSION turns back in distance to make his local debut. He tired late when stretched out for the first time but he barely lost the last time he sprinted. Not sure how he’ll handle the transition to dirt but would imagine it won’t pose a problem. 9-SENDMEDOWNTHEROAD makes his debut. Leading barn wins about 22% of their first timers though not quite as often with the low-level maiden claimers. We’ll see. 4-LARRY’S LUNCHBOX finished in the money in last couple at this level. He was far back from the winner in each event but the winners of those races were far ahead of everybody else and don’t think there are any of that type in this race.