Handicapper Tips & Picks

Eduardo Rodriguez returns with a pair in this race and both capable in this spot. #3 SAPPHIRE NIGHTS has the foundation against winners and coming back from a rough beat (B) under similar conditions last month as one of two 3yo in the field, something that continues here. #4 HEAVENLY HASH had a slight SETUP with the maiden win though back numbers and efforts to hold her form and even improve as she makes her second start off the layoff and a fit on this circuit.

#1 HEART OF HANISCH has enough tactical speed to put herself into the race from the rail something she was unable to do three weeks ago with a poor start and WIDE RUSH into a solid pace over the poor WEATHER impacted track conditions coming up short as the heavy favorite on the day and will look to validate herself back in a similar spot first off the claim for A. Meraz.

#2 HOLY IMAGE is a longshot though has form coming into this race and a contentious pace could see her sneaky into the number at double digit odds.

#6 SET THE PACE should be the controlling speed in this race and the most dangerous of those EP runners however could find company in the role and with the higher 47 SpeedRate must come out with a top effort off the bench to hold that edge in this group around two turns.

The Contention and SpeedRate can upgraded runners form off the pace: #1 BLESSED ANNA projects to find a lot of attention for the live connections and wheeling back under similar conditions from the 4/7 where she was favored on the day. BLESSED ANNA turned in a strong CLOSE similar to #3 IZZY’S MONSTER to finish together at the wire with pacesetting winner, Hot Dame though was able to SAVED ground, something not afforded to BLESSED ANNA.

The WIDE trip also played against #4 MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN one that had a look on the day from buried form and found wagering support down to 7-2, the second choice in wagering off the 8-1 ML. She could be dismissed today given the recent outcome and see a rebound at longer odds. #7 SILKY WARRIOR could still be a race out waiting for the turf though she is not out of it, just requires price compensation especially on the win end. 

This race shape has a tricky dynamic with the “Fire” Contention paired with the low SpeedRate that can be seen visually on the Plot with five of the six “bunched” around each other though below the ParLine. That is not the most ideal scenario, though not an impossible scenario for #5 COWGIRL FRANKIE to make her late run and pass that first flight of horses.

That one true scenario requires some price compensation on COWGIRL FRANKIE though could be there in this compact field with the “logical” #2 POSITIONDUMONI and #6 COCKTAIL CUTIE likely to find their share of wagering support and similar between the two V. Childers runners, preference to #3 FERGIE ATTACK over #1 FREEDOM ATTACK; and over #4 HOP AWAY HOTTIE one that does not present much of an edge in this group and should show more early speed under J. Felix following the SLOG, TROUBLE_S last out. 

#6 BABA’S BOY should find a different trip today than two weeks ago when forced to contest the pace. Ulloa had been aboard in prior seasons with success on the lead and they were game in defeat with the winner, #1 MILLARD’S SMILE making their run from off the pace. Today’s race shape could allow then to rate just off rivals #4 WHERE’S THE DAY GO and #5 BLURT and look for first run to turn the tables.

A different dynamic along with conditioning could benefit WHERE’D THE DAY GO looking to score on the front end and that scenario opens up here. The longer projected odds alone upgrade #7 BLOOMING GARDEN as he makes his second start off the layoff and can step forward from the race two weeks ago given the poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and should bring plenty of fitness in from that WIDE trip. A front wrap removal could upgrade further though fits as well as any in this field on his best day.

#2 STORM BORN is another to get an eye on the track for a front wrap removal and glancing at the Plot could find the same trip (Quad II Square) as BABA’S BOY and does project to go off higher of the two.

This is a deep race where a legitimate case can be made for every runner in this field. #8 TAPERINEA is the least interesting at a shorter number coming off the layoff into today’s event though would be no surprise; the edge to #7 EMITYAAZ at the longer odds of the two and similar Plot position with recency is preferred if going in that direction.

#2 TIMELESS GLORY fits logically off her current form and with a return to O. Hernandez, the rider aboard for a win last year. #5 DIALED INNA also fits here though current form is not strong to justify a shorter number, the removal of the front wraps could be a positive and overall prerace visuals that will be required here.

Looking at the Plot and the group of five runners bunched together under a “Sun” Contention and honest 39 SpeedRate sets up for a closer/Quad IV. #1 POINT OF INFINITY being one of those runners and one less proven over the dirt though did break their maiden by open lengths last summer at MNR with the races take off the turf making a middle move on a course rated “good” though appeared quite dry. The layoff comes into play though for her is one that has had to deal with longer layoffs in the past and can run off the bench especially with the right pace setup. #3 MORNING LINE NEWS is also upgraded in today’s race shape and with the time off returning to Hawthorne at the route distance. Her races here in the past were all contested sprinting with her two wins in 2023 around two turns.

Even the two longer shots in #4 CAIRO SUMMER and #6 MISS WINDY SLEW both show “green” OptixNOTES Keywords coming into this event and are not far off the others in this field placed where they can compete and pull off an upset.

#5 CODE RUNNER had a big look just over a week ago at KEE and can upgraded from that trip and the connection might feel the same way wheeling right back for this race. They were giving up recency and with Talamo aboard, a weak gate rider had CODE RUNNER off a step slow and forced to RUSH WIDE into an honest pace before losing ground. The race par today is closer to a lateral move from the recent series of races in KY to suggest they can compete here and given a very strong Surface/Distance Plot upgrade.  

#3 ALPINE GHOST is the price play in this race and should be sitting on a peak effort. He has moves forward number wise into this third start back off the layoff and appreciative of the added ground along the way. That should continue here and further intent with a rider change.

#2 MAQAMAT was a live longshot two weeks ago and off the BTL effort and class change is a logical contender here. He looked to need the race off the bench going back to opening day and the move off the rail along with the front wrap removal. The class drop should assist, and further intent though still must come out running once again under a similar race par. #5 JRUE BREEZE follows MAQAMAT in a similar race-to-race pattern and looking at the Plot, moves up in today’s race shape.

#6 KINGSWOOD also wheels back from a BTL effort on 3/31 and out of a race that has held form with Time Heist winning again last week along with the 6^th place finisher Boise winning last weekend at FAN and the others holding their form. 

#5 SUCCESSION is the horse to beat coming into this race with some of the higher figures, class drop and upgraded off their current form. Since the claim the timing and rail draw was not ideal on 3/1 and upgraded from the 3/21 event draw outside staying on as the BOS through a Very Fast early pace around two turns.

#11 GRAND FESTIVAL is close on numbers with a top effort and presents upside in his second start of the season with the slight addition of ground. The timing was also a quick turnaround shipping up from TAM and two weeks since their final start of that meet. They have been given a couple more week and likely better WEATHER conditions today and a better start than the TROUBLE_S three weeks ago.

The debut trip for #6 IRISH COAST was a complete EX – EXCUSE from 4/7 at the higher MCL condition and slightly higher par than the group returning from the MCL event at this level later on that card. They appear no worse for the wear working again on 4/20 and returning here with another live rider with E. Gallardo aboard. Mojica had been named on debut and also had been named aboard #9 SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD when they were entered to debut on opening day (3/23) and D. Cohen has the call here as one of two mounts on the card – aboard #1 REGULAR GUY in Race 6.