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Sat April 27th, 2024 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:50 PM CST
The analysis starts with #6 UNIFIED WEEKEND one that has
been consistent this season and while just short on the win end turned in
competitive B/B- efforts. His form and
ability to show early speed in today’s race shape should allow for no excuses
even if #4 FLYING SAMURAI does provide some pace pressure.
#1 ROCKET HOTSHOT could sit the inside stalking trip though
will be required to hold and keep themselves in the race in order to not get
left with too much to do late. That similar trip comes into play for common rival
#2 CHICKS FOR FREE and #3 TONALTALITARIAN one giving up recency off the 546-day
layoff.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:20 PM CST
#5 LUCKY SHOT returns with fitness and the key extra furlong
of ground to move them up in this second start of the meet and look to turn the
tables on #2 STRANGE ARRANGE returning from the 3/30 common race. LUCKY SHOT
has more early speed than they were able to show that day and should be able to
sit right with and outside of STRANGE ARRANGE to work a trip and first run on
the other three in this field.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:50 PM CST
Unlike the race shape in the compact field in Race 2, the early
pace (40 SpeedRate) and “Sun” Contention could assist runners form off the pace.
That should find value as a result with the wagering likely to fall on both #2
BALI DREAMIN and #3 KAELY’S SISTER, runners that fit as the “horse to beat”
role and there is a scenario where they run 1-2 around the track, but that is a
less exciting scenario to play and should see #1 FIRST KITTEN up in that early
mix.
KAELY’S SISTER can be upgraded from first flight group as
she makes her second start off the layoff and returning from the 552-day layoff
last month was restless in the GATE pushed through did not run off though was
reloaded and once in the gate was off a beat slow and had to RUSH into a Fast
early pace.
If the contention does present itself, #4 SHEZ STUCK UP could
move up and coming into his race with form from a WIDE trip at a higher allowance
condition earlier this month at Oaklawn. #5 RACEDAY ATTIRE holds a similar Plot
position and strong late kick (Quad IV Square) though lacking the same recency
fits off the 181-day break.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:20 PM CST
#7 COMEDIC TIMING should present value in this race off the
recent running lines though placed where they can compete and improve for the
barn. Since the claim back in February at TP they have been protected racing
for a higher purse and par than today’s race. They will race for the $25k tag,
though given they were claimed for $8k this is still a confident placement for
live connections.
#5 CATEGORY TEN might not be the “most likely” in this spot though
he is not far off what it takes to compete here. He will take the rise in class
returning from the 4/7 race though that was a sneaky good effort making a WIDE
MOVE X_FLOW following a compromised (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) break over a course that
was impacted from earlier WEATHER conditions.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:50 PM CST
#6 WINGING WAYS looks to hold a tactical advantage and one
that sits over rival #7 BREAKING NEWS as they project to find attention again returning
from the pair of place finish efforts this season. WINGING WAYS brings in
further upside as they make their second start off the layoff and while they
did NO_FINISH the lack of conditioning could have played a role.
Conditioning for a second start off the layoff also upgrades
#3 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR as they show up here. They had a hurdle not only coming
back from the 255-day layoff but also with the outside post in a full field.
The challenges continued as they lunged out of the gate (SLOG, TROUBLE_S)
showing run in spots and visuals to suggest they can IMPROVE and Mojica taking
over today is also notable.
#5 CHRISTMAS PRESENT has held his form this season and
should not be an issue cutting back to the 6f distance today with a solid
Surface/Distance Plot position/shape. Class wise today’s race is closer to a
lateral change. The change in class is a drop for #1 IRISH VALOR returning from
the layoff and another that has some select sprint form that fits to compete
with today’s group returning to those efforts and working a trip, something
that could require some price compensation.
Centeno does stick with BREAKING NEWS in this spot and had
been the regular rider with success aboard #2 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER and while certainly
there are no knocks on J. Felix taking over the intent still could be called
into question.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:20 PM CST
This is a contentious event with many in this field moving
up making class changes. That includes both Rivelli runners: #2 GIANNO is the
more established this season and prior to those two local starts the
connections had entered and scratched a couple of times from MCL races and
giving him the chance at MSW this move is reasonable at this point. #8 THE
RIDGE is less established and did race for a tag in the debut earlier this
month. From a visual standpoint he looked to need the race running GREEN and
from physical standpoint should handle the STRETCH, the added ground.
Perez also comes into this race with a similar pair with #6
ICE AXE holding that established edge and fitness returning under similar
conditions from a competitive race at the level, though also one of the
longtime maidens brings some reservations with price compensation needed. #1
LAUREATE will race for a tag today and one that had some public support in his
debut last summer and should bring fitness wheeling back in two weeks off the
layoff and from a WIDE trip racing in hand/NO_PUSH.
As far as #3 SHARP STICK he could be no surprise and
eventually will catch the right group with a top effort to get the job done.
The class change out of Oaklawn on this circuit moves him up naturally though
for today’s route race, he must show more on the stamina front.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:50 PM CST
#7 GETTIN PAID moves up as they make their second start of
the meet and subtle changes from the 4/13 race. They were entered at this level
back on 4/6 though their runstyle did not fit the race shape that day and found
a softer group for the higher $12.5k N2L condition two weeks ago. Today’s par
is similar though they draw better today outside horses after taking KICKBACK
in that recent event and their early speed should have them in contention early
and on Standard (current form) Quad I Square could sit right off #1 OVERDUE
HONOR and the quick #4 MAD DRAGON with first run.
MAD DRAGON will be kept in the number with their early speed
and Surface/Distance Plot upgrade with separation on the closing runners, #2, UNCLE
DICK, #3 GRAPHENE CASSOCK and #5 STOLICH.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 6:20 PM CST
#7 DESSERT FIRST looked to need a start to regain form over
this course and a little more ground than the opening day 5f sprint allowance.
They return here and in claiming company with a softer race par than the two races
since the February win. Today’s par is similar on this circuit to race here last
May when in for the $25k tag and turned in a BTL effort that day in the show
finish at the 6f distance.
DESSERT FIRST should be able to work out a trip as well as
any in this field shown on OptixPLOT as one of the Larger Squares (finishing
ability) in the group. While there is a “Snowflake” Contention (light Quad I)
and average 22 SpeedRate, many in this field have had their success on or near
the lead and could be more assertive in this race and a tougher pace scenario for
#8 SHORT STRAW on the step up from the LONE trips this season and lack of
finishing ability (Large Circle) in today’s group.