Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 ON K P will give up recency off the layoff though is back in the right spot to compete. He has stood competitive over this course and sprint distance with the majority of his local races to date contested in allowance company with the exception the lone win when in for the $25k tag in a N2 condition. His figures remained consistent with each start on or above par for today’s event including that win, an 89 figure a number that stands out above every race from the others in this field. He has enough tactical speed to put himself in the race at the 5.5f distance with class/finishing ability. Coming off the layoff can be the main hurdle that should come with some price compensation and one that is value as the third choice. Oh, and J. Loveberry has the call. 

Assessing the favorites: #4 TRIBEST has recorded some of the higher figures in the field and done so recently as she makes her second start of the cycle and on this circuit a fit in this race; #7 GRACEFUL SCARLET will take a class drop despite making the change to run against older here. Manley has a group of these runners out from California, and they have held their form and raced competitively here. Number wise GRACEFUL SCARLET has recorded higher figures than her older, seasoned, locally based IL-bred stablemate #6 TU ROYAL.

#3 BOYCE’S BANDIDA wheels back under similar conditions though a higher race par and could find company on the front end with #1 MAGGIE E along the rail and coming back with the weight break as R. Blanche takes the call. #5 PEGGY’S WAY also has shown early speed, she is draw outside that duo and should assist on trip here as well as the preferred distance change back to ONE_TURN.

A contentious pace should assist #2 IMAGE OF CURLIN, and trainer H. Irion has already sent out a deep closing winner this meet. The connections claimed her back in December and makes a lateral class change from the GP events to suggest she can hold her form here. Something that appears reasonable compared to a big move forward as a 5yo mare. 

The pair for E. Lopez fit as well as any in this group and should present value in their own right and in this field:

#1 JOCELYN looked to need the start (PREP) opening week and showed more run (MOVE, GALLOP+) to suggest she should appreciate the race over the track and for today’s conditions the added ground. They will add the blinkers here and possible worked in the blinkers after the race last month with the recorded move on 4/10. In addition, she could project to show speed with the rail draw, weight break and route distance – similar tactical approach to the November race and show finish.

#4 LIGHTNING MELODY making her first start on this circuit and belated return to MCL company. She could move up naturally and has the two turn foundation and coming off a less than ideal trip back in February. 

#4 DEVIL does not have to face off against her state bred stablemates here and fits in the role as the race favorite. She has consistently recorded some of the higher figures in this field and drawn favorable for her runstyle in today’s race shape. #6 CHERYL’S APPEAL could wind up a close second choice given the connections and coming back under similar conditions for this second start on the quick three week turnaround. While she did not have must to endorse first out, she broke SLOG and was in hand (NO_PUSH) not asked for her best behind Devil and her open length pacesetting stablemate winner, Beehive, in a race that did not have much change in running order.

#1 JOYZELLA made a positive PRERACE+ appearance of the layoff last month, though was a touch overmatched against open company. She also took KICKBACK and was not asked (NO_PUSH) late something that R. Blanche must work out from the rail and could trip to see them more assertive here. She has just the two starts in her career in statebred MSW company and those are the two place finishing sitting towards the top of her past performances resulting in the place finishes. 

#5 BROKEN HEARTS BAY will get another look In this group and coming back at this level with an extra furlong for this second start of the meet. She fit off the prior form and stakes placement from last summer at PRM. As far as the 3/30 race she broke SLOG and TROUBLE_S making a MOVE through TRAFFIC to improve position though had too much to do as the top three ran 1-2-3 around the track.

The winner Wild Bout Hilary trained by T. Tracy and ridden by J. Loveberry, and that combination return here with #4 FIRST LOVE one that has some class questions as she takes the rise in par for this race. The class test will also follow stablemate #6 HIGHWOOD one that was dominant on the front end on debut and has some challenges a this is just a second start and faces seasoned and many older rivals.

#1 NO TAPPIN OUT takes a lateral change in class and looks well-intended in this spot. Value wise she might not offer much compensation, however logical. One should also keep the Young barn on the radar as they are making it look easy sending out four starters and a perfect 4-for-4 win result and will be represented here by #2 FAST N HAPPY one of those winners this meet that will be required to step up against winner, though ahs some back numbers in line with the recent maiden win.

#5 U. S. HONOR MAP made his route debut the recent start coming off the layoff and should condition from that start wheeling back in two weeks to the familiar sprint distance. He has form over this course with a pair of races last spring at the higher $25k N2 level. Perhaps his edge along with the recency and potential intent is runstyle. There are many in this field that want and appear to need the lead and he is not one of those runners that can stalk and make their move.

#1 MODAZZLE is also not a need the lead type though has tactical speed and should be sitting on a peak effort in this third start off the layoff and with improving numbers race to race. #7 WEST ISLAND could hold the edge of the front runners coming into this race with current form at this N3 level and figures on par. He is not a “need the lead” type and stalked in the most recent win on the turf at the two turn distance at CBY last year. 

#4 IZEONEDEC looks to have found the right spot if there ever was one to clear this N2 condition. His form and figures stack up as the horse to beat in this race and perhaps the biggest hurdle is himself as he is not a “win machine” and that more than anything could open up the race to others.

#2 PALHACO is the one to get creative with as he makes his second start of the meet and under similar conditions from the 3/31 event. Going back to that day, he did not appear race ready WASTED a lot of energy prerace and in running made a WIDE RUSH into a solid pace before losing ground and could project a move forward all things considered.

#3 MINNESOTA MOON did nearly wire the field twice while in his maiden days over this course and distance recording numbers not far off IZEONDEC on his better days. Quinonez stablemate #8 PERFUMER has a strong late kick and there is a scenario where he can get things done from off that pace, though more likely to run on and pass horses late for a share.

O. Hernandez will shift to #7 ARMAVIR one that benefit from racing and their handling for the maiden win. That race was on the turf and after a few starts, something that could be required here at the same time fits as a “new” face making just the first start in for this lower claiming tag. #1 HAWAIIAN HIDE AWAY will look to keep up the strong win streak for Young coming back from their maiden win last month. Their figures and outcome improved with the change in claiming company and while a step up from two weeks ago, they fit with others here. 

#3 ESSENTIAL BELLA could be live here for the connections and first start on this circuit. She will find class relief and a softer par than she has not seen in a long time and the time off could be what was required after a long season that started in December and without too many breaks and a lot of racing through the calendar year.

#6 SUMMER AT THE SPA should be at the right level to compete on this circuit and has been able to transfer her form from route to sprint. The surface is another question, and she has had just limited dirt starts all by default on a surface switch. Her figures on the dirt were not as strong as her turf/synth numbers though at this level, she might not be required to run her fastest career race to compete.

From a pace standpoint, #7 PLAY TWENTY could be the controlling speed and the race could be over at the first call if she gets clear. She has had some gate issues though quick and showed that last out, the race two weeks ago with the pace Fast early and late despite being LONE and perhaps played a role in the lack of finish. She was also a Q1 Circle on both Standard and Surface/Distance and upgraded on Standard as a Square here.